This application introduces an automatic attribution method that, in a few seconds, provides key indicators regarding the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to the properties of hot extreme events that has occurred anywhere on the globe.
Click on the marker and drag at the desired location.
Observations (estimated from the ERA5 database) from 1940:
Under this heading, you determine whether or not a newly observed event is attributable to climate change. Just specify its location, and intensity in degrees Celsius. The returned diagnostics are the probabilities of occurrence of the event (factual) and the probabilities for a world without anthropogenic climate change (counterfactual). The slider on the left can be used to determine the properties of the event year by year.
Under this heading, you calculate the return level in degrees Celsius associated with a return period.
Under this heading, you calculate the return period of an observed event in degrees Celsius.
Reference:
Qasmi et al. (2025): An automatic procedure for the attribution of extreme events at the global scale: a proof of concept for heatwaves
10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0265.1